Job loss surge slowing down

The surge of job losses that took off almost two years ago because of the recession is flattening out, labor officials say.

In Anne Arundel County last month, the jobless rate was 6.5 percent, which experts said is comparable to the prior month, after tweaking the numbers to account for seasonal labor trends. About 250 fewer county residents were out of work in September than in August.

Statewide the labor market is in a similar situation. The unemployment rate inched up to 7.2 percent in September from 7.1 percent in August. But despite the slight increase, the state's Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation officials noted that Maryland's unemployment situation has not wavered substantially since May.

Joseph E. Cater, president and chief financial economist of Market-Economics Inc. of Annapolis, said the new set of data has some good signs.

The unemployment rate for the county was 6.8 percent in both June and July.

"The numbers were a little bit higher in July, and it looks like in the county, it's holding in terms of unemployment," he said.

Though this could indicate a peak, Cater said there may be a few more ups and downs to come.

For example, when looking at the Annapolis-specific unemployment rate, it seemed as though there was a peak of 6.3 percent in

June, but then it climbed up again at the same rate last month.

"We've got this crazy bumpiness around that's causing a great deal of instability," Cater said.

According to the state's labor department, Maryland employers cut about 3,600 jobs from their business payrolls last month.

But there were 1,400 jobs added in the construction sector during September. Officials said it was the first gain in construction employment in 18 months of consecutive declines.

Economists look at several different indicators on which to base their forecasts. One unscientific indicator for the local economy could be the boat shows, Cater said.

Though officials of the Annapolis Powerboat Show, which occurred last weekend, said the considerable attendance, in spite of rain, was a positive sign for consumer confidence. Ticket sales were down 11 percent from last year's sales.

And the number of boats on display may also represent the state of business. Last year, event organizers touted 450 in-water boats; this year, a marketing official for the event said there were almost 400 total exhibits.

"It was substantially down, and that's nothing new because the industry itself has experienced closures," Cater said. "The whole industry is under tight economic times, and based on our maritime study a year ago, that filters down to local businesses."

But Cater cautioned a possible peak in unemployment, on its own, is not an effective indication of an economic turn-around.

"Unemployment tends to be lagging behind about six months, so if you're saying you're seeing the peak, that's not telling us very much," he said. "It's probably going to be another 12 months before we see the impact, so another year - not until second quarter of next year - until we can maybe see somewhat of a peaking."

SEPTEMBER UNEMPLOYMENT

Anne Arundel County
2009 - 6.5, 2008 - 4.0

Maryland
2009 - 7.2,    2008 - 4.5

United States
2009 - 9.8, 2008 - 6.1

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics