Races in 1st and 5th districts very different

The races for the 1st and 5th Congressional Districts are a clear study in contrasts.

Although both encompass portions of Anne Arundel County, their circumstances this election season are vastly different. One will get a new representative for the first time in almost 20 years, and the other showcases the near-impossible task of beating a political powerhouse.

On the one hand, the 5th Congressional District race should be a confirmation of the benefits of incumbency, especially since the incumbent is House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-St. Mary's, one of the most powerful members of Congress.

The Republicans did not even field an opponent in 2006, and Mr. Hoyer enjoys clear advantages in money and voter registration in his party.

Meanwhile, the 1st Congressional District race between Republican State Sen. Andy Harris and his Democratic opponent, Queen Anne's County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil, has attracted national attention and national money.

The competitive and oftentimes barbed race was spurred when Dr. Harris successfully knocked off a nine-term incumbent, U.S. Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, R-Kent, in the primary election. Now, some polls are showing the opponents neck-in-neck in the race to become the next representative of Severna Park, Arnold, Millersville, parts of Baltimore and Harford counties and the Eastern Shore.

The results of the race could be a bellwether for how well Democratic candidates do across the country, said Michael Cain, the director of the Center for the Study of Democracy at St. Mary's College of Maryland.

"It is the only race in town," he said. "This race is going to be closely watched nationally."

The 1st

Several factors have led to a close race, Mr. Cain said: gradual improvement of Mr. Kratovil's campaign, along with money from the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; the endorsement and campaigning of Mr. Gilchrest; and the national political and economic atmosphere benefitting Democrats.

"The economy has made lots of voters nervous about the standard prescription of letting markets work," Mr. Cain said. "(The race) is going down to the wire."

At the tail end of the campaign, there probably are few undecided voters left, he said, and victory could rest in whose supporters show up in greater numbers.

"Who is going to get out the vote now?" Mr. Cain said. "That is going to play really heavily right now."

Dr. Harris is confident his history of standing against tax increases and spending will resonate with voters.

Although Republicans may have lost ground in the earlier moments of the Wall Street crisis, voters are realizing the effect Democratic tax policies could have on small business and personal wealth, he said.

"The economy is where my record is absolutely the strongest," Dr. Harris said. "That's what they are going to look for."

Door-to-door canvassing and phone banking will be done in the next week to make sure supporters are rallied to the polls, the senator said. The victorious primary results show his campaign has the ability to bring in the votes, Dr. Harris said.

"That should provide the margin," he said. "We proved that we have got a battle-tested ground game."

Mr. Kratovil said his message of bipartisanship and reason distances him from Dr. Harris, and endorsements from regional newspapers are evidence he will be a more moderate force in Congress, he said.

"It all demonstrates the distinction in that respect," he said.

Phone calls and door-knocking are planned to rally support in the campaign's waning days, Mr. Kratovil said.

"I think we're going to win, but I'm a prosecutor," he said. "I believe in continuing to work until the jury is back."

Richard Davis is running as a Libertarian in the 1st District, and said discontent with the personal attacks and records of the two major parties leaves an opening for a third challenger.

"If the future of our electoral system is truly tied to mailers, yard signs, bumper stickers, and short TV and radio ads, I don't hold out much hope for us," he said in an e-mail. "There is clearly an increasing level of discomfort among voters with the amount of money going into the process. I would rather give voice and form to that discomfort than contribute more to it."

The 5th

Mr. Hoyer is a fundraising machine who has been able to spend time this election season helping out candidates in other states. But the congressman tries to keep his foot firmly planted in Maryland's 5th district, which includes southwestern Anne Arundel County and southern Maryland.

"Nobody who votes for me for majority leader sends me to Congress," he said. "I don't think anybody in the district thinks I've forgotten about them."

In the midst of historic economic upheaval, Mr. Hoyer recognizes Congress is going to have extremely difficult decisions heading forward, including entitlement reform to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

"Any administration has to calibrate based upon the reality that confronts it when it takes over," he said.

Mr. Hoyer's major opponent, Republican challenger Collins Bailey, said he hopes that troubling reality will make people think twice before sending a Washington veteran back for another term.

Dissatisfaction over the Wall Street bailout and neglect of issues such as energy have translated into single-digit approval ratings for Congress, Mr. Bailey said, and he believes that is an opening for change.

"That's lower than the British before the Declaration of Independence," he said. "There are plenty of things for people to be less than enamored with," he said, referring to Congress.

Mr. Bailey, a member of the Charles County school board, said his candidacy is about renewing the country's "constitutional heritage" - limiting the size of government, cutting profligate spending and deficits, and allowing people to make decisions about their own money.

In interviews with other media outlets, Mr. Bailey has described himself as a devout Christian whose social stances on issues such as abortion, stem-cell research and abstinence-only sex education are shaped by his religion.

"It's not my goal to be a congressman," he said. "It's my goal to see our nation change."

Darlene Nicholas is running as the Libertarian candidate for the 5th district seat and was unavailable for comment.

The fundraising gap is fairly indicative of the pitfalls in taking on a strong incumbent. Mr. Hoyer has raised more than $3.5 million and has $1.2 million on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission, compared with Mr. Bailey's total of $18,410, with $8,498 on hand.

Ms. Nicholas has not raised any money, according to the FEC.

Challenges for the challengers are not limited to dollars, as Democrats hold a 2-to-1 advantage in voter registration in the district, according to the State Board of Elections.

"(Mr. Hoyer) walks in with very high name recognition, a lot of money," said Dan Nataf, a political scientist at Anne Arundel Community College and director of the Center for the Study of Local Issues. "It makes it an almost impossible task (to defeat him)."

Unhappiness with the current government is helping Democrats more than Republicans, he said, and a lack of resources means an inability to get out an anti-incumbent message.

"Where is the initiative going to come from?" Mr. Nataf said.

Mr. Hoyer said people have a right to be "ticked off" at Congress, and legislation has had a difficult time getting passed out of a deeply divided Senate. Accomplishments were made, however, including a minimum-wage increase, the economic stimulus package and raising long-term fuel economy standards.

"The House has been very successful," he said. "Only Republicans thought we were going to do radical things."

People may not like Congress, but they have an affinity for their own congressman, Mr. Hoyer said. Most of the Senate and the president were not on the ballot in 2006, and people have a chance this election to definitively change the government's direction.

Democrats could pick up 25 or 30 seats in Congress, he said, including the 1st District.

"Only one-third of the change agents were elected in 2006," Mr. Hoyer said. "America knows correctly its country is going in the wrong direction."