Anne Arundel at center of slots vote

On the way into Laurel Park, the signs of potential change are, literally, all around.

Lining the roads and the parking lots are bright signs from the major pro-slots group, For Maryland For Our Future, proclaiming "Stronger Schools, No New Taxes, Vote for Question 2."

Question 2, of course, is the slot machine referendum that would allow up to 15,000 slots at five locations, including 4,750 machines within two miles of Baltimore-Washington Parkway.

There is no question Laurel Park, one of the eligible locations, wants slots. After all, parent company Magna Entertainment Corp., which owns the track, already has shelled out $2 million for the campaign.

Inside Laurel Park last week, it was mainly business as usual. There was a decent crowd watching the simulcast races indoors, and some people wandered out to the rail to drink some beers and cheer on the horses on a cool fall day.

The slots debate has been around for years, and plenty feel it is time for Maryland to help out the horse racing industry and draw back the busloads of gamblers who go to slots parlors in other states.

"Why not keep (the money) here?" asked Eugene Milam, a Hyattsville resident who frequents the track and will vote yes in the referendum. "They are taking it to Delaware and

West Virginia."

Slots would alter the fiscal landscape of Maryland.

But even with slots, the state faces historic budget problems, with deficits well more than $1 billion forecast for the next several years as spending outpaces resources.

About $5 billion of expected revenue vanished from the state's balance sheet between December 2007 projections from the state's Department of Legislative Services and estimates released earlier this month. Slots supporters argue there is no other option but to approve expanded gambling, unless people wish to see deeper cuts in services.

Trickle down

Slots also would alter Anne Arundel County.

After all, the potential county site - widely assumed as Laurel Park - would be the biggest, and is expected to be the most profitable, of any slots location in Maryland.

Revenues from the county site are expected to be $125.2 million in fiscal 2011 while the site operates at half-capacity, and $477.9 million in fiscal 2012 once it fully opens, according to DLS.

And more money would be pumped into regional and state coffers from that site. Any bidder on the Anne Arundel slots license would have to shell out $28.5 million by Feb. 1, 2009, to even be considered for it.

The license winner also would have to invest $25 million in construction and related costs for every 500 machines they plan to install. For a full-strength Anne Arundel County site, that means $237.5 million would be spent on a facility.

If Laurel Park gets slots, it would have to develop a racing improvement plan with $1.5 million of annual capital maintenance and improvement in order to qualify for purse and racetrack subsidies.

Local governments would get a slice as well. Anne Arundel County is expected to get impact grants of $6.9 million in fiscal 2011, $21.6 million in 2012 and $24.6 million in fiscal 2013.

According to county government estimates provided to DLS, slots would cost $8 million annually for increased public safety, infrastructure and social services, with $1.2 million in one-time start-up expenses.

But the potential investments in construction are holding little sway in the business community, said Claire Louder, the executive director of the West Anne Arundel County Chamber of Commerce.

Business people who do vote for the referendum will do it mainly because of the "fear that if it doesn't pass, we'll be looking at higher taxes on the business community," she said.

Businesses are worried about dollars being diverted to slots as overall discretionary income slides, Ms. Louder said, and any jobs that will come with a slots parlor will pale next to the high-tech employment anticipated with the Base Realignment and Closure boom. Every dollar spent on infrastructure for a slots facility means less money to prepare for the thousands of people coming to the Fort Meade area.

"We have an opportunity to really make West County a technical hub and a homeland security hub," she said. "We're struggling with how to manage growth, not how to find jobs."

Old numbers

Of course, some slots opponents don't believe any of those slots numbers, particularly the projected revenue. They say monetary estimates have not been altered since the economy went into meltdown.

"We are faced with a false choice here, that it is a given this is going to solve the problem," said Minor Carter, an anti-slots lobbyist, at a slots debate this month. "If you think it is a year ago, keep buying Lehman Brothers stock."

A recent study by the Maryland Institute for Policy Analysis and Research at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County, questioned the legitimacy of any slots projections, as all estimates "are riddled with uncertainty."

Although funded by an anti-slots group, the study says the organization had no influence on the methodology or outcome of the findings.

In order to get the $660 million projected for education in fiscal 2013, Maryland would have to recapture every dollar being spent on slots out-of-state and generate new gambling at nearly 150 percent current levels.

"In general, the legislative proposal has heavily regulated the structure of the market without any knowledge of the actual demand or geography of demand for gambling within the state," the study says.

Opponents also bring up the fact that slots will not be an immediate salve to Maryland's budget problems, as evidenced by continuing deficits: $1.5 billion in fiscal 2011, $1 billion in fiscal 2012, more than $800 million in fiscal 2013.

"They are still going to have to make the budget cuts they are trying to avoid," said Tim Reyburn, the president of the Russett Community Association and an opponent of slots. "It is not an instant thing."

Although the Russett board has not formally taken a position, it does have concerns about money being diverted from other businesses and traffic congestion, particularly as the region attracts thousands from BRAC.

Slots at Laurel would be like having a football game every day, Mr. Reyburn said.

"This is right smack in the middle of suburban bedroom community," he said. "I think the location here is not the best."

Ultimately, however, those concerns may be overrun by the laissez-faire attitude many have toward slots.

Ray Smallwood, the president of the Maryland City Civic Association, was a teenager when the state still had slots, and remembers his grandfather playing them regularly at a local bar.

"It was entertainment more than anything else," Mr. Smallwood said this summer.

Everybody needs money and everybody needs funding, he said.

"I don't see any of the churches canceling their bingo," Mr. Smallwood said. "I have never seen anything wrong with an adult making a decision on their own behalf."