Poll: O'Malley will face re-election challenges

Maryland may not exactly line up in the political landscape with New Jersey or Virginia, but a new poll shows voter dissatisfaction could plague Gov. Martin O'Malley in his re-election bid next year.

A poll by the Washington-based Clarus Research Group shows the Democrat with ratings of less than 50 percent in three key areas: job approval, whether voters want to re-elect him, and in a trial rematch with his Republican predecessor as governor, Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.

Lackluster numbers in that "Triple Crown of re-election" could mean a difficult battle to retain the Governor's Mansion, said Ron Faucheux, the president of the survey research firm.

O'Malley "is re-electable but he is potentially vulnerable," Faucheux said. "He has got time to deal with it, but there is some potential danger for him."

The independent poll interviewed 637 Maryland voters between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2, and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

Although O'Malley has a 48 percent approval rating and a 47 to 40 percent lead over Ehrlich, just 39 percent of voters said they wanted to see O'Malley re-elected, with 48 percent wanting someone new to win.

O'Malley's only rating of more than 50 percent on separate issues was a 54 percent on "living up to high standards of ethics." The governor had ratings in the 30th percentile on topics such as bringing new jobs to Maryland, holding down taxes and managing the budget.

The numbers come as the Republican Party celebrates gubernatorial victories this week in Virginia and New Jersey, where incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was ousted.

Ehrlich, who lost after one term, has told media outlets that his scrutiny of the outcomes of these races will play a part in whether he tries to become governor again.

Ehrlich became the state's first Republican chief executive since the 1960s when he defeated then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002.

But the numbers in that election still had distressing signs for future statewide Republican candidacies. While individual counties and districts may have come out in force for Ehrlich, on a purely numerical basis the party remained outnumbered across Maryland as a whole.

Despite winning 21 out of 24 jurisdictions, Ehrlich took the office by only about 66,000 votes, a victory margin of less than 4 percent. Townsend won only Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George's counties, but her wide margins in those populous strongholds reflected a core strength of the Democratic Party.

Larry Hogan, a former member of Ehrlich's cabinet who will take on O'Malley if Ehrlich does not, said yesterday that the poll reinforced what his campaign is hearing from residents.

Also this week, another potential Republican challenger, Mike Pappas, dropped out to support Hogan.

"Maryland voters are ready for change," Hogan said in a statement. "The tide that swept in new leadership in Virginia and New Jersey is rising quickly in Maryland."

But the financial motivations of voters are more significant than the Republican victories themselves, Faucheux said.

"There is a lot of economic discontent," he said. "Voters know that this (recession) is a national problem. But they are looking at governors and how they are handling it."

O'Malley recognized that challenge on Wednesday when asked about the election results.

"People are apprehensive, they are anxious and they want this recession to be over with," he said. "The best way to prepare for next year is work as hard as we can right now."

But based on voter registration alone, a challenger to O'Malley has a much different task than Republican Gov.-elect Chris Christie, who defeated Corzine in New Jersey.

"Maryland is not New Jersey or Virginia," O'Malley said.

If anything, the voter registration gap between the major parties only got bigger between Ehrlich's 2002 victory and last November's elections: Democrats grew to almost 57 percent of registered voters, while Republicans slid to 27 percent. Theoretically, O'Malley could capture a significant victory without any votes from outside his party.

That is not the case in New Jersey. Even though that state is typically seen as a Democratic stronghold, registered Democrats make up only 34 percent of registered voters.

Unaffiliated voters make up a large swing constituency, claiming almost 46 percent, with Republicans trailing both at around 20 percent.

Corzine also had much worse poll numbers than O'Malley, Faucheux said.

"The best thing (O'Malley) has got going for him is the state does have a strong Democratic position," he said.